Projecting the pennant races

The time has come for one of my favorite exercises of the baseball season: the "Calculating of What We Gotta Do To Win" exercise. Frankly, this is even more fun when the Cardinals are in first place, but we do it anyway.

Here's how it works: You assume the team in first place plays .500 ball the rest of the way and figure out what their record would be based on the number of games they have left. Then, calculate what the second place team must do to beat the first place team by one game. Then, ask yourself, "Can you see this happening?" It's a "Yes" or "No" question. From there, you can make some assumptions about the races, what you hope to see, and how likely these scenarios are.

Let's try it out. These are based on results through Wednesday, August 21.

First, let's eliminate a couple of races. The Atlanta Braves have a 15-game lead in the National League East and I do not see the Washington Nationals threatening them. I say this one is done. Next, the NL West, where the Dodgers have an 8 game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Eight games is doable, but the Dodgers have been so good lately (historically great, actually) that I think this lead will grow over the rest of the season. As good as the Braves are, the best team in the NL right now might be the Dodgers.

Now, to the other end of the spectrum, the really close races. Only one game separates Boston and Tampa in the American League East and just one game separates the Pirates and the Cardinals in the NL Central. And the Reds are just another 2 games back of St. Louis. In the AL West, two games separate first-place Texas and second-place Oakland. These races are so close, there's no need to figure them. They are neck-and-neck and the numbers would be about the same for all involved.

So there remains one division, the AL Central, where it is not yet decided, but it's not so close that the figures would be nearly the same. Detroit has a 6-game edge over Cleveland. If the Tigers play .500 ball the rest of the way (18-18), they would finish 92-70. The Indians would have to go 24-11 the rest of the way to beat Detroit by a game. What this shows us is that, while the division is mathematically up for grabs, the Tigers would have to slow down quite a bit and the Indians would have to play over their heads to take this division away. Yes, it's possible. But I think it's unlikely. I would think Detroit is going to have this division sewn up by mid-September.

The upshot is it appears we have three good races right now, the East and the West in the American League and the Central in the National League. As these races unfold, you can re-visit the calculations, so enjoy! 

One more thing. I mentioned it before, but seriously, you HAVE TO SEE, if you didn't, how historically great a run the Dodgers are on and how improbable it is that they have the record they do after the start they had. Let's say it this way: If you had done the calculations I just outlined in June on the Dodgers, you would have said, "There's no way they can pull this out!" Yeah. Except they are.